Does ROC momentum turn actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran ROC momentum turn on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 85 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 69% profit, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal -22.34% drawdown that lasted nearly three years, from early 2018 through the end of 2020, which is where the pain really concentrated. With a win rate of only 36%, most trades lost money, meaning the overall profit came from a few big winners rather than steady small gains. The entry timing is strong, beating 85% of random entries, so getting in at the right moment is a key part of the success. The edge was not consistent, as it was profitable in only 3 out of 4 test periods, suggesting the strategy's performance depended heavily on one or two favorable market stretches.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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