Does EMA 20/50 trend rider actually work on NFLX? We tested it
We ran EMA 20/50 trend rider on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 97 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 117% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 39.5% drawdown that lasted nearly three years, from mid-2020 to early 2023, which is where the pain really concentrated. With only 23 trades and a 39% win rate, the result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, but the entry timing is clearly critical. The entry-timing edge shows that real entries beat 97% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result, not the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was steady, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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