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Does Keltner channel breakout actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran Keltner channel breakout on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 99 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +1911.2%
Win rate 48.5%
Max drawdown −64.2%
Trades 33
Sharpe 0.92
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +52.1% 0.78 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +208.0% 1.30 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +81.7% 0.98 7
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +9.1% 0.38 8
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.86. Worst period +9.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 5 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
99/100 EDGE
TSLA
95/100 EDGE
MSTR
87/100 EDGE
GLD
86/100 EDGE
AMD
80/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
89/100 NONE
NVDA
69/100 NONE
BA
66/100 NONE
NFLX
62/100 NONE
AAPL
59/100 NONE
COIN
57/100 NONE
SOFI
57/100 NONE
META
54/100 NONE
MSFT
53/100 NONE
UBER
52/100 NONE
PLTR
50/100 NONE
GOOGL
48/100 NONE
JPM
47/100 NONE
XOM
44/100 NONE
SMCI
39/100 NONE
AVGO
33/100 NONE
DIA
30/100 NONE
MU
23/100 NONE
AMZN
21/100 NONE
IWM
20/100 NONE
QQQ
6/100 NONE
SPY
1/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above KELTNER upper band of close over 20 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below KELTNER midline of close over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a huge amount of money, turning a starting amount into nearly 20 times that over the whole test. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a brutal drawdown of over 64% that lasted more than a year from late 2017 into early 2019, which would have been very painful to sit through. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the win rate is close to 50% and the average trade return is solidly positive. The entry timing is a major part of the edge, since the real entries beat 99% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you get in matters a lot. The edge also shows up consistently across all four walk-forward periods, so it is not a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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