Does MACD cross above 200 SMA actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran MACD cross above 200 SMA on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a massive amount of money, turning a starting account into over 35 times its original size. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a brutal drawdown of nearly 40% that lasted from late November 2024 through early March 2025, which is where it hurt the most. The win rate is below 50%, meaning you lost more than half your trades, but the winners were far bigger than the losers, with the average trade gaining nearly 14%. The entry timing is a standout feature, as your specific entry signals beat 100% of random entry dates, so the entry itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up as profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the success was not driven by just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.