Does MACD cross above 200 SMA actually work on GOOGL? We tested it
We ran MACD cross above 200 SMA on GOOGL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 94 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 172% gain on GOOGL over 76 trades, but the ride was fairly lumpy with a Sharpe ratio of 0.89 and a win rate just above 50%. The worst pain came during a drawdown of about 14.5% that lasted from September 2021 to February 2022, which is a significant and sustained losing stretch. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing edge is strong: your real entries beat 94% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the performance, not the exits. The edge also shows up consistently, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the profit came steadily across different market conditions rather than from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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