Does MACD cross above 200 SMA actually work on COIN? We tested it
We ran MACD cross above 200 SMA on COIN through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 95 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Apr 2021 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong profit of 238.4% over 16 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 41.4% drawdown that lasted from March to October 2023, which would have been painful to sit through. The win rate is only 43.75%, meaning most trades lost money, but the winners were big enough to more than make up for it. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing edge is strong: your entries beat 95% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result, not the exits. The edge is also consistent, showing up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the profit came steadily across different market conditions rather than from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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