Does Weinstein Stage 2 breakout actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran Weinstein Stage 2 breakout on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 98 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy did make money overall, with a 65.91% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst period was a brutal 33.47% drawdown that lasted from early 2023 to mid-2025, which is where it hurt the most. With only a 25.53% win rate, the result is clearly driven by a few big winners that made up for many small losses. The entry timing is extremely strong, beating 98% of random entry runs, so the setup itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge also showed up consistently, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning it wasn't just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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