Does Weinstein Stage 2 breakout actually work on JPM? We tested it
We ran Weinstein Stage 2 breakout on JPM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 200% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 26.7% drawdown that lasted about a year and a half, from early 2018 to September 2019, which is where it hurt the most. With a win rate of only 31.7%, the result is clearly driven by a few big winning trades that made up for many small losers. The entry-timing edge is strong, as real entries beat 80% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so it wasn't just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.