Does 50-day moving average cross actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran 50-day moving average cross on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 146% total return on GLD. However, the ride was very lumpy, with a win rate of only 27% and a punishing worst drawdown of nearly 19% that lasted from August 2020 to February 2022. That long, deep losing stretch was where it hurt the most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing itself shows a strong edge, beating 93% of random entry runs. This means the entry signal is doing the heavy lifting, not the exits. The edge also appears consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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