Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on META? We tested it
We ran SMA 20/50 cross on META through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a substantial profit, turning a 623% total return on META over 23 trades. However, the ride was very lumpy, with a maximum drawdown of -34.48% that lasted from September 2021 to April 2022, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The win rate was just over 52%, meaning it won slightly more than half the time, but the average trade returned a solid 12.37%. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing edge is strong: your real entries beat 93% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result. The edge is also consistent, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, showing the setup worked steadily across different market stretches.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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