Does SMA 20/50 cross actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran SMA 20/50 cross on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 97 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 114% total return on GLD over 25 trades. The ride was moderately lumpy, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 and a worst drawdown of -19.21% that lasted from late January to late March 2026, which is where the strategy hurt most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the win rate is a solid 60% and the average trade gained 3.36%. The entry timing is doing most of the heavy lifting here, since the real entries beat 97% of random entry dates, meaning the signal to buy when the 20-day average crosses above the 50-day average is very effective. The edge is also consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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