Does EMA 8/21 trend rider actually work on SPY? We tested it
We ran EMA 8/21 trend rider on SPY through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 79 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money, turning a 52% total return over 47 trades, but the ride was lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 11% drawdown that lasted over a year from late 2017 into early 2019, which is where it hurt most. The entry timing is doing the heavy lifting here, since the real entries outperformed 79% of random entry runs, meaning the exits are not the main source of edge. The edge was also consistent, showing up as profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not driven by just one lucky stretch. However, the win rate is below 45%, so you will lose more than half your trades, and the profit comes from letting the winners run.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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