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Trend · NFLX · 1D

Does EMA 8/21 trend rider actually work on NFLX? We tested it

We ran EMA 8/21 trend rider on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 98 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +223.3%
Win rate 49.0%
Max drawdown −37.5%
Trades 49
Sharpe 0.81
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +40.0% 1.05 10
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 −18.1% −0.71 9
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +37.1% 0.92 11
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +3.6% 0.24 8
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.37. Worst period −18.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

NFLX SHIPPED
98/100 EDGE
MSFT
93/100 EDGE
JPM
93/100 EDGE
GOOGL
86/100 EDGE
AAPL
84/100 EDGE
SPY
79/100 EDGE
IWM
78/100 EDGE
GLD
76/100 EDGE
QQQ
75/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
99/100 NONE
PLTR
98/100 NONE
MSTR
82/100 NONE
AMD
72/100 NONE
BA
65/100 NONE
DIA
59/100 NONE
COIN
58/100 NONE
AMZN
56/100 NONE
XOM
51/100 NONE
RIOT
47/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
UBER
43/100 NONE
AVGO
42/100 NONE
META
30/100 NONE
SMCI
29/100 NONE
NVDA
24/100 NONE
MU
15/100 NONE
SOFI
13/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen EMA of close over 8 bars crosses above EMA of close over 21 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 21 bars), or stop-loss at -10%
Sizing**Position size:** risk 1% of account → position ≈ 10.0% of account (1% ÷ stop 10%).
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 223% total return on NFLX, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 37.5% drawdown that lasted over two years from mid-2020 to late 2022, which would have been painful to sit through. The win rate is just under 49%, so almost half the trades lost money, but the average winning trade was large enough to compensate. The entry timing is a standout here, since real entries beat 98% of random entry runs, meaning the crossover signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four walk-forward test periods, so the result is not just a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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