Does EMA 8/21 trend rider actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran EMA 8/21 trend rider on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 76 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall with a 37.78% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. You would have experienced a brutal 21.74% drawdown that dragged on for about a year and a half, from August 2020 to February 2022, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The win rate is low at just under 30%, meaning most trades lost money, but the winners were big enough to overcome the losers. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing shows a real edge, beating 76% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the performance. The edge also appears consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk forward periods, so the profit did not come from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.