Does EMA 20/50 trend rider actually work on AAPL? We tested it
We ran EMA 20/50 trend rider on AAPL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 79 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money, turning a 142.57% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 22.70% drawdown that lasted from mid-2024 into April 2026, which is where it hurt the most. With only 25 trades over the entire period, the result is driven by a relatively small number of trades, and the 40% win rate means most trades lost money, but the winners were big enough to carry the overall profit. The entry-timing edge shows that real entries beat 79% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here. The consistency figure shows the edge was reliable, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning the performance wasn't just from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Do moving average crossovers actually work?
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