Does Williams %R bounce actually work on JPM? We tested it
We ran Williams %R bounce on JPM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money, turning an 86.53% total return over 34 trades, and the ride was relatively steady with a high 79.41% win rate and a modest average gain of 1.90% per trade. The worst stretch was a drawdown of -11.50% that lasted about ten months from late 2018 into mid-2019, which is where the strategy hurt most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the edge was consistent across all four walk-forward test periods. The entry timing is doing the heavy lifting here, since the real entries beat 93% of random entry runs, meaning the specific signal of crossing above -90 on the Williams %R while above the 200-day moving average is what makes this work.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Does buying the dip actually work?
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