Does Williams %R bounce actually work on DIA? We tested it
We ran Williams %R bounce on DIA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 36.56% total return on DIA with a solid 71.43% win rate, meaning most of your trades were winners. The ride was relatively steady, with a maximum drawdown of only -8.78%, which happened during a single rough stretch from late February to late March 2026. The entry timing was a major strength, as your real entries outperformed 93% of random-entry simulations, showing that the setup itself is very good at picking the right moments to buy. The edge was also consistent, proving profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the results are not just from one lucky streak. Overall, the strategy's success is driven by its precise entry signals, not by just a few lucky trades.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Does buying the dip actually work?
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