Does Three-down-days bounce actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran Three-down-days bounce on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, returning 80% over 66 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 31.5% drawdown that lasted over a year, from early 2023 to mid-2024, which would have been painful to sit through. The win rate is high at 71%, but the average gain per trade is only 1%, meaning most wins are small and a few big losers likely caused the deep drawdown. The entry timing has a strong edge, beating 93% of random entries, so the setup itself is picking good spots to get in. The consistency is decent, with profits in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the edge is not just from one lucky run.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Does buying the dip actually work?
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