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Mean reversion · UBER · 1D

Does Stochastic oversold bounce actually work on UBER? We tested it

We ran Stochastic oversold bounce on UBER through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 77 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +112.1%
Win rate 84.2%
Max drawdown −24.1%
Trades 19
Sharpe 0.82
Equity curve

Equity curve over May 2019 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Oct 2020 to Mar 2022 +36.4% 1.58 3
2 Mar 2022 to Aug 2023 +7.0% 0.39 4
3 Aug 2023 to Feb 2025 −6.2% −0.11 5
4 Feb 2025 to Jul 2026 +21.0% 1.51 4
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.84. Worst period −6.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 6 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.

UBER SHIPPED
77/100 EDGE
NFLX
96/100 EDGE
META
77/100 EDGE
QQQ
76/100 EDGE
AVGO
76/100 EDGE
XOM
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSTR
73/100 NONE
IWM
68/100 NONE
DIA
68/100 NONE
MSFT
66/100 NONE
NVDA
57/100 NONE
COIN
54/100 NONE
AMZN
50/100 NONE
MU
50/100 NONE
JPM
49/100 NONE
RIOT
44/100 NONE
AAPL
37/100 NONE
GLD
33/100 NONE
AMD
30/100 NONE
MARA
28/100 NONE
BA
27/100 NONE
SPY
26/100 NONE
GOOGL
19/100 NONE
TSLA
7/100 NONE
SMCI
6/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen STOCH %K(14/3/3) of close crosses above 20 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (STOCH %K(14/3/3) of close is above 80)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 112% return on UBER, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 24% drawdown that lasted from March to December 2024, which would have tested your patience. Despite that, the win rate was high at 84%, meaning most trades were small winners, but the average gain per trade was only 4.2%. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing itself shows a real edge, beating 77% of random entries. The edge was also consistent, showing up in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the performance came from steady execution rather than one hot streak.

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