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Mean reversion · META · 1D

Does Stochastic oversold bounce actually work on META? We tested it

We ran Stochastic oversold bounce on META through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 77 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +92.7%
Win rate 84.4%
Max drawdown −39.5%
Trades 32
Sharpe 0.56
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −27.4% −0.58 7
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +32.9% 1.40 8
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +34.8% 2.32 7
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +25.1% 0.73 7
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.97. Worst period −27.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 6 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.

META SHIPPED
77/100 EDGE
NFLX
96/100 EDGE
UBER
77/100 EDGE
QQQ
76/100 EDGE
AVGO
76/100 EDGE
XOM
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSTR
73/100 NONE
IWM
68/100 NONE
DIA
68/100 NONE
MSFT
66/100 NONE
NVDA
57/100 NONE
COIN
54/100 NONE
AMZN
50/100 NONE
MU
50/100 NONE
JPM
49/100 NONE
RIOT
44/100 NONE
AAPL
37/100 NONE
GLD
33/100 NONE
AMD
30/100 NONE
MARA
28/100 NONE
BA
27/100 NONE
SPY
26/100 NONE
GOOGL
19/100 NONE
TSLA
7/100 NONE
SMCI
6/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen STOCH %K(14/3/3) of close crosses above 20 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (STOCH %K(14/3/3) of close is above 80)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 92.69% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst period was a brutal -39.46% drawdown that lasted from early 2018 through the COVID crash in March 2020, meaning you would have sat on a deep loss for over two years. While the win rate is high at 84.38%, the average trade only gained 2.30%, so the profit came from many small wins rather than a few home runs. The entry timing shows a real edge, beating 77% of random entries, so the setup itself is picking good spots to get in. The consistency figure shows the edge was present in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the profit was not just from one lucky stretch, but it did struggle badly during that long 2018-2020 drawdown.

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