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Mean reversion · NVDA · 1D

Does RSI(2) below 5 dip buy actually work on NVDA? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) below 5 dip buy on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 84 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +83.8%
Win rate 78.1%
Max drawdown −30.1%
Trades 32
Sharpe 0.58
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −18.5% −0.71 2
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +12.8% 0.72 6
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +46.8% 1.54 10
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +23.3% 0.84 8
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.60. Worst period −18.5%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 10 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.

NVDA SHIPPED
84/100 EDGE
GOOGL
95/100 EDGE
GLD
95/100 EDGE
MSFT
92/100 EDGE
AMD
91/100 EDGE
AVGO
84/100 EDGE
MU
83/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
UBER
80/100 EDGE
XOM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSTR
85/100 NONE
DIA
73/100 NONE
SPY
64/100 NONE
JPM
60/100 NONE
NFLX
48/100 NONE
SMCI
45/100 NONE
MARA
44/100 NONE
TSLA
42/100 NONE
IWM
40/100 NONE
META
37/100 NONE
AAPL
31/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
AMZN
23/100 NONE
SOFI
17/100 NONE
RIOT
11/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 5 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 2 bars is above 70)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, with an 83.76% total return from 32 trades, and it won over 78% of the time. However, the ride was very lumpy, as shown by a Sharpe ratio of just 0.58 and a brutal maximum drawdown of -30.15% that lasted from July to October 2018. That deep drawdown is where it hurt most, and it suggests the strategy can suffer a severe and prolonged loss of value even while still being profitable overall. The result does not appear to be driven by just a few lucky trades, since the average trade returned a solid 2.11% and the win rate is high. The entry-timing edge figure of 84% means the entry signal itself is doing most of the work, so the timing of when you get in is far more important than how you exit. --- **Disclaimer:** The above text is generated by a large language model and is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to trade any specific strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any trading decisions.

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