Does RSI(2) below 5 dip buy actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran RSI(2) below 5 dip buy on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 95 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, gaining 22.63% on 33 trades, and it had a high win rate of nearly 73%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was lumpy, not steady, with a maximum drawdown of -9.92% that lasted about five months from late October 2025 to late March 2026, which is where it hurt the most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry-timing edge is strong: real entries beat 95% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result, not the exits. The edge also shows up consistently across time, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning the performance didn't come from just one lucky stretch. In short, this setup reliably catches good dip entries but can still suffer a significant, prolonged drawdown during tough market conditions.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Bigger picture: Does buying the dip actually work?
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