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Mean reversion · AMD · 1D

Does RSI(2) below 5 dip buy actually work on AMD? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) below 5 dip buy on AMD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 91 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +134.1%
Win rate 77.1%
Max drawdown −21.8%
Trades 35
Sharpe 0.73
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +53.0% 1.27 10
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +1.8% 0.17 6
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +18.5% 0.93 8
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +9.0% 0.38 7
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.69. Worst period +1.8%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 10 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.

AMD SHIPPED
91/100 EDGE
GOOGL
95/100 EDGE
GLD
95/100 EDGE
MSFT
92/100 EDGE
NVDA
84/100 EDGE
AVGO
84/100 EDGE
MU
83/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
UBER
80/100 EDGE
XOM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSTR
85/100 NONE
DIA
73/100 NONE
SPY
64/100 NONE
JPM
60/100 NONE
NFLX
48/100 NONE
SMCI
45/100 NONE
MARA
44/100 NONE
TSLA
42/100 NONE
IWM
40/100 NONE
META
37/100 NONE
AAPL
31/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
AMZN
23/100 NONE
SOFI
17/100 NONE
RIOT
11/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 5 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 2 bars is above 70)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 134% total return on AMD over 35 trades. The ride was fairly steady, with a high 77% win rate and an average gain of 2.57% per trade, but the worst moment came in early February 2026 when the account dropped 21.83% in just a few days. That drawdown was sharp and concentrated, so the strategy can hit a painful patch even though most trades work out. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, since the edge shows up consistently across all four test periods. The entry timing is doing the heavy lifting here, because the real entries beat 91% of random entry runs, meaning the signal to buy when RSI(2) dips below 5 while the price is above the 200-day average is what makes the strategy work, not the exit.

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