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Mean reversion · AVGO · 1D

Does RSI(2) dip, MA exit actually work on AVGO? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) dip, MA exit on AVGO through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 94 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +140.2%
Win rate 72.6%
Max drawdown −22.3%
Trades 84
Sharpe 0.86
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −9.4% −0.41 15
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +1.4% 0.14 16
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +39.3% 1.91 19
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +37.7% 1.09 20
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.68. Worst period −9.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

AVGO SHIPPED
94/100 EDGE
NVDA
100/100 EDGE
MU
100/100 EDGE
AMD
99/100 EDGE
MSFT
98/100 EDGE
MSTR
96/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
META
81/100 EDGE
SPY
80/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
GLD
81/100 NONE
GOOGL
68/100 NONE
AAPL
66/100 NONE
DIA
60/100 NONE
BA
60/100 NONE
XOM
60/100 NONE
SMCI
50/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
COIN
44/100 NONE
IWM
37/100 NONE
UBER
35/100 NONE
AMZN
34/100 NONE
NFLX
31/100 NONE
SOFI
30/100 NONE
MARA
30/100 NONE
RIOT
30/100 NONE
JPM
26/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 10 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is above SMA of close over 5 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 140% gain on AVGO with a high win rate of nearly 73%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was very lumpy, as the worst drawdown hit -22.3% and lasted over two years from early 2018 to early 2020, which would have been a painful period to hold through. The entry timing is a key strength here, since the real entries beat 94% of random entry runs, so the setup is doing a great job of catching good dips rather than the exits carrying the result. The edge appears fairly steady, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the performance is not just from one lucky stretch. Overall, the strategy works but demands patience during long drawdowns, and it is not driven by just a few big trades given the high number of 84 trades.

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