Does Pin bar at a 20-day low actually work on NVDA? We tested it
We ran Pin bar at a 20-day low on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 81 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, gaining about 34%, but the ride was very lumpy with a Sharpe ratio of just 0.37. The worst stretch was a brutal -23.91% drawdown that lasted over two and a half years, from late 2021 through mid-2024, which is where it hurt the most. With only 16 trades over the entire test, the result is heavily dependent on each individual trade, and the high 75% win rate suggests the exits are doing the heavy lifting. The entry itself has a strong edge, beating 81% of random entries, so the timing of getting in is a key part of the success. The edge is not consistent across all periods, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning one period likely dragged down the overall performance.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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