Does Pin bar at a 20-day low actually work on AAPL? We tested it
We ran Pin bar at a 20-day low on AAPL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 85 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 26% gain on AAPL over 19 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 11.6% drawdown that lasted about a year and a half, which would have been painful to sit through. The good news is that the entry timing itself is carrying the result, since the real entries beat 85% of random entry runs, meaning the pin bar setup at a 20-day low is genuinely picking good spots to buy. The edge also shows up steadily across time, with the strategy being profitable in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the result is not just from one lucky streak. However, with only 19 trades total, the overall numbers are fragile and could change quickly with just a few more trades.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.