Does Four-down-days bounce actually work on MSTR? We tested it

This strategy made money overall, returning 31.44% on 28 trades, and it had a high win rate of over 71%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was very lumpy, as shown by a low Sharpe ratio of 0.41 and a brutal maximum drawdown of -18.37% that lasted nearly three years from mid-2021 to early 2024. That long drawdown period is where the strategy hurt most, and it suggests the setup went through a long stretch without working well. The entry timing does appear to carry some weight, since real entries beat 79% of random entry runs, so the specific signal of buying after four down days above the 200-day average added value. The consistency figure shows the edge was not steady, as the strategy was only profitable in 3 out of 4 test periods, meaning one losing period dragged down the overall result.