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Mean reversion · UBER · 1D

Does CCI oversold bounce actually work on UBER? We tested it

We ran CCI oversold bounce on UBER through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 90 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +157.7%
Win rate 82.6%
Max drawdown −24.0%
Trades 23
Sharpe 0.98
Equity curve

Equity curve over May 2019 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Oct 2020 to Mar 2022 +59.8% 1.87 4
2 Mar 2022 to Aug 2023 +4.1% 0.42 3
3 Aug 2023 to Feb 2025 −8.6% −0.23 6
4 Feb 2025 to Jul 2026 +37.8% 1.57 8
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.91. Worst period −8.6%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

UBER SHIPPED
90/100 EDGE
DIA
93/100 EDGE
META
92/100 EDGE
NFLX
87/100 EDGE
MSTR
76/100 EDGE
NVDA
75/100 EDGE
AVGO
75/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
91/100 NONE
RIOT
71/100 NONE
AMZN
66/100 NONE
XOM
61/100 NONE
GLD
57/100 NONE
JPM
54/100 NONE
SPY
52/100 NONE
MARA
46/100 NONE
GOOGL
45/100 NONE
QQQ
40/100 NONE
MSFT
36/100 NONE
BA
27/100 NONE
AMD
26/100 NONE
IWM
17/100 NONE
MU
15/100 NONE
AAPL
12/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
SMCI
5/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen CCI of close over 20 bars crosses above -100 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (CCI of close over 20 bars is above 100)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money, turning a 157.66% total return on UBER over 23 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 24% drawdown that lasted from March to December 2024, meaning the strategy went through a long period of underwater losses. The high 82.61% win rate and average trade gain of 4.43% suggest the strategy made small, frequent wins, but the drawdown shows it can get stuck in a bad patch. The entry timing is strong, beating 90% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, meaning the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.

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