Does Bollinger snapback actually work on SMCI? We tested it
We ran Bollinger snapback on SMCI through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 81 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong profit of over 425% on 40 trades, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 50.82% drawdown from late July to mid-November 2024, which means the account would have been cut in half during that period. The high 80% win rate and average gain of 4.78% per trade suggest the strategy wins often, but the deep drawdown shows it can suffer a painful losing streak. The entry timing has a solid edge, beating 81% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing much of the work rather than the exits. The strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the edge is fairly consistent and not just a fluke from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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